BrickCheck™
BrickCheck™ Market Intelligence
Methodology & Index Construction
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Index Methodology
BrickCheck™ MMi & SMi · Proprietary Price Index · Base Period = March 2026
What We Measure

The BrickCheck™ Minifig Market Index (MMi) tracks secondary market appreciation for collectible LEGO® minifigures using a fixed-basket price index — the same methodology used in national Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculations.

The index answers a single economic question: If you had bought the same basket of minifigures at the market's base period prices, how much would that basket cost at today's prices? The answer, expressed as an index level, measures collective market appreciation.

Data is sourced exclusively from BrickLink, the largest LEGO secondary market, via the BrickLink API. Prices reflect completed used-condition transactions — actual sale prices, not asking prices.

The Price Index Formula

BrickCheck MMi uses a fixed-weight (Laspeyres-type) price index. The basket composition and weights are fixed at the base period and held constant until annual rebase.

Index(t) = Σ [ P(t,i) × Q(base,i) ] ───────────────────────── × 100 Σ [ P(base,i) × Q(base,i) ]

P(t,i) — Current period price: the 6-month average of completed used-condition sale prices from BrickLink for fig i at time t.

P(base,i) — Base period price: the used-condition average at March 2026. Locked permanently — never revised.

Q(base,i) — Base period quantity weight: combined new + used historical transaction volume at March 2026. Locked permanently — never revised.

A NULL current price (fig temporarily inactive) contributes zero to the numerator and its full base weight to the denominator — a deliberate conservative bias.

Chain-linking: At annual rebase (every March), the index level is recorded, a chain factor is updated, and the period index resets to 100. This preserves the full historical series while allowing basket composition to evolve. Current chain factor: 1.618764 (set March 2026). Historical readings are never revised.
BrickCheck Fair Market Value (FMV)

The BrickCheck FMV price is a proprietary composite displayed on fig cards and used for appraisal purposes. It is not the index price input — the index uses completed transaction prices only.

FMV = ( Used Avg + Replacement Avg ) / 2 ↳ Falls back to Used Avg alone when Replacement Avg is unavailable

Used Avg — 6-month average of completed used-condition BrickLink sales. Economic ground truth for the index.

Replacement Avg — Trimmed mean of the middle 40% of active BrickLink stock listings (outlier prices removed). Requires ≥ 10 active lots.

BrickCheck FMV outperforms BrickLink's raw average by blending completed transactions with current market depth, removing both stale low offers and price-gouging high asks.

The 5 Admission Gates

Every Active 300 constituent must pass all 5 gates simultaneously. Gate evaluation runs after every monthly scrape. Failure on any single gate triggers removal review.

GateRule
G1Data quality = Excellent (both markets active, sufficient transaction history)
G2Total historical sales ≥ 200 (combined new + used)
G3Both new-condition and used-condition markets active (avg > $0)
G4Historical used average price > $0
G5Historical used transaction volume > 0
Current status: 399 of the Top 700 most-liquid minifigures pass all 5 gates simultaneously. 300 are active index constituents. The 1.33× buffer allows monthly churn without immediate admission gaps.
Universe & Constituent Selection

Total universe: 18,740 minifigures tracked across the BrickLink catalog.

Active constituents: 300 — selected by liquidity rank (most-traded figs passing all 5 gates).

Top 700 pool: The waiting list of gate-eligible candidates monitored monthly.

Data source: BrickLink secondary market API (two-account rotation).

Scrape cadence: Monthly on the 25th at 09:00 UTC.

Annual rebase: Every March — basket reviewed, chain factor updated, period index reset to 100.

Permanently excluded: Friends, DUPLO, and Jack Stone themes. Event-exclusive and convention-only figures (Toy Fair, SDCC, Comic Con) are retained — their replacement values serve appraisal purposes.

19 Theme Subindices — March 2026 Base Readings

Each theme subset runs its own Laspeyres calculation monthly. Themes are derived automatically via GROUP BY — never hardcoded. Star Wars is split into Classic (pre-2013) and Modern (2013+) eras.

Star Wars — Modern
+36.3%
136.33
Star Wars — Classic
+80.2%
180.16
NINJAGO
+202.7%
302.66
Space
+280.7%
380.72
Super Heroes
+80.5%
180.49
Minecraft
+67.3%
167.34
Harry Potter
+59.9%
159.90
LEGO Ideas
+15.7%
115.72
Castle
+28.9%
128.88
Pirates
+216.0%
316.02
TMNT
+137.3%
237.26
Indiana Jones
+133.8%
233.85
One Piece
+25.2%
125.25
Jurassic World
+90.4%
190.41
Atlantis
+125.7%
225.74
Power Miners
+215.2%
315.20
Dimensions
+90.1%
190.12
Town
+49.8%
149.76
Holiday & Event
+23.0%
123.04
Star Wars concentration: Combined Star Wars (Classic + Modern) represents ~68.9% of basket weight by value. Subindices are always published alongside the headline number for context. The Star Wars era split reveals meaningfully different return profiles between pre-2013 and post-2013 figures.
BrickCheck MMi Score (1–99)

Each minifigure in the BrickCheck universe receives a MMi Score — a proprietary composite intelligence score on a 1–99 scale. The score is designed to surface which figures have the strongest combination of market liquidity, price appreciation, scarcity, and collector demand.

The MMi Score is computed using a three-dimension architecture: Liquidity, Replacement Value, and Investability. Each dimension is scored independently and combined via geometric mean — rewarding well-rounded figures over those dominant in a single dimension.

The exact formula, component weights, and normalization methodology are proprietary and are not disclosed publicly. Full score component breakdowns are available to BrickCheck subscribers.

What the score measures: A high MMi Score indicates a figure with strong market liquidity, meaningful price appreciation since the base period, real collector demand (not just price spikes), and confirmed market activity. Army-builder figures and still-in-retail figures receive adjusted multipliers reflecting their different supply dynamics.
Removal Trigger Framework

Tier 1 — Immediate (mid-period)

Market collapse: both new + used avg = $0 for 2 consecutive scrapes.
Data quality drop: quality = Bad for 2 consecutive scrapes.
Price spike anomaly: >200% single-period move with <5 transactions — suspended 30 days.

Tier 2 — Annual rebase review

Sales floor breach: total historical sales <150 at review.
Quality degradation: Good quality for ≥2 of last 4 scrapes.
One-sided market: one side = $0 for ≥3 consecutive scrapes.
Rank displacement: liquidity rank <450 at review.

Key Dates & Governance

Base period: March 25, 2026 · Index = 100

First headline reading: March 2026 · 164.37 (as of May 29, 2026)

Monthly scrape: 25th of every month, 09:00 UTC

Annual rebase: Every March — basket reviewed, additions/removals published 2 weeks prior

Historical series: Never revised. Chain-linking preserves continuity through rebases.

Data provider: BrickLink (bricklink.com) — largest LEGO secondary marketplace